Wet and windy weather is expected to move across Scotland and Northern England on Tuesday, and more especially late on Tuesday into Wednesday. A turbulent spell of weather is likely as areas of low pressure push from West to East in a zonal fashion toward our Northern shore.
The area of low pressure will be located close to Iceland on Tuesday but it will be the trailing weather fronts protruding into the Western Isles of Scotland that will be the cause for most concern.
An early assessment has been made for generally low impact and low disruption as a result of wind and rain associated with this Iceland low. The weather models are projecting some potentially high rainfall totals ranging 50-70mm with the main focus across the Western upslopes of Scotland as warm air is forced to rise and condense dropping a lot of moisture. The orographical enhancement of the rainfall on the Western slopes of Western and North Western Scotland are the regions we are focusing our 40% probability of disruption due to the possibility of localised fluvial flooding, and to a lesser extent isolated pluvial.
A secondary factor, at the moment at least, will be the strength of the wind as the Southern portion of the Iceland low exhibits a reasonable tightening of the isobars. Strong winds will develop almost everywhere during the middle stages of this week, but again the main focus for the strongest winds with gusts to 50mph to lower ground and in excess of 60mph to higher ground and in exposure will be across Scotland, and to a lesser extent N England.
No significant disruption to transport networks or power utilities is anticipated at this juncture however the situation is being monitored.
Care should be taken if you reside in Western and North Western Scotland in particular, and to a lesser extent across remaining parts of Scotland and Northern-most Northern England.